Stress-Aware Inventory Decision Dashboard

Policy Recommendation

3 days of cover (95% CI: — )

Meets Target

Selected policy

3 days

P(stockout) = 1.9%

Minimum feasible

3 days

≤ 2% target

Lowest-cost feasible

3 days

est. cost $—/unit-day

Coverage margin

+0 days

at minimum

Stockout Prob.

—

95% CI: —

Exp. Shortage

—

95% CI: —

Stress Index

—

Cover Margin

—

vs. min feasible

Policy Cost Index

—

hold + shortage exp.

Min Feasible Policy

— days

Est. cost: —

Lowest-Cost Feasible

— days

Est. cost: —

Current Selection

— days

Est. cost: —

Days of Cover vs. Stockout Probability

Active curve highlighted · CI band shown · Target, selection, and min-feasible annotated

Live disruption signals · model-based risk estimates

Low

Normal

High

Extreme

Target

95% CI band

Selection

Min feasible

Demand distributionNormal(μ=100 units/day, σ=18)

Lead-time distributionLog-Normal(μ_LT=3d, σ_LT×regime)

Monte Carlo trials10,000 (Phase 1 target)

Safety stock modelShifts reorder point; modifies demand-side dist.

Tail mitigation modelTruncates upper lead-time tail (above 95th pct.)

Shortage modelLost sales (unmet demand not backfilled)

Review periodContinuous (s, Q policy)

Cost frameHolding cost + E[shortage] × penalty (no fixed order cost)

Signal sourceLive NWS/GA511 signals mapped to stress-conditioned risk estimates

Decision Summary

Operational Takeaway